Signal or Noise? Evaluating Large Language Models in Resume Screening Across Contextual Variations and Human Expert Benchmarks

Abstract: This study investigates whether LLMs exhibit consistent behavior (signal) or random variation (noise) when screening resumes against job descriptions, and how their performance compares to human experts. Using controlled datasets, we tested three LLMs (Claude, GPT, and Gemini) across contexts (No Company, Firm1 [MNC], Firm2 [Startup], Reduced Context) with identical and randomized resumes, benchmarked against three human recruitment experts. Analysis of variance revealed significant mean differences in four of eight LLM-only conditions and consistently significant differences between LLM and human evaluations (p < 0.01). Paired t-tests showed GPT adapts strongly to company context (p < 0.001), Gemini partially (p = 0.038 for Firm1), and Claude minimally (p > 0.1), while all LLMs differed significantly from human experts across contexts. Meta-cognition analysis highlighted adaptive weighting patterns that differ markedly from human evaluation approaches. Findings suggest LLMs offer interpretable patterns with detailed prompts but diverge substantially from human judgment, informing their deployment in automated hiring systems.