Forecasting Multivariate Urban Data via Decomposition and Spatio-Temporal Graph Analysis

Abstract: The forecasting of multivariate urban data presents a complex challenge due to the intricate dependencies between various urban metrics such as weather, air pollution, carbon intensity, and energy demand. This paper introduces a novel multivariate time-series forecasting model that utilizes advanced Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) to capture spatial dependencies among different time-series variables. The proposed model incorporates a decomposition-based preprocessing step, isolating trend, seasonal, and residual components to enhance the accuracy and interpretability of forecasts. By leveraging the dynamic capabilities of GNNs, the model effectively captures interdependencies and improves the forecasting performance. Extensive experiments on real-world datasets, including electricity usage, weather metrics, carbon intensity, and air pollution data, demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed approach across various forecasting scenarios. The results highlight the potential of the model to optimize smart infrastructure systems, contributing to energy-efficient urban development and enhanced public well-being.