On the proportion of irreducible polynomials in unicritically generated semigroups

Abstract: Let $p$ be a prime number and let $S={x^{p+c_1,\dots,xp+c_r}$} be a finite set of unicritical polynomials for some $c_1,\dots,c_r\in\mathbb{Z}$. Moreover, assume that $S$ contains at least one irreducible polynomial over $\mathbb{Q}$. Then we construct a large, explicit subset of irreducible polynomials within the semigroup generated by $S$ under composition; in fact, we show that this subset has positive asymptotic density within the full semigroup when we count polynomials by degree. In addition, when $p=2$ or $3$ we construct an infinite family of semigroups that break the local-global principle for irreducibility. To do this, we use a mix of algebraic and arithmetic techniques and results, including Runge's method, the elliptic curve Chabauty method, and Fermat's Last Theorem.