Effect of Mitigation Measures on the Spreading of COVID-19 in Hard-Hit States

Abstract: State government-mandated social distancing measures have helped to slow down the growth of the COVID-19 pandemic in the United States. Current predictive models of the development of COVID-19, especially after mitigation efforts, are largely based on extrapolating the data from other countries. Since most states enforced stay-at-home orders towards the end of March, their effect should be reflected in the death and infection counts at the end of April. Using the data available until April 25th, we investigate the change in the infection rate due to the mitigation efforts, and project death and infection counts until September, 2020, for some of the most heavily impacted states: New York, New Jersey, Michigan, Massachusetts, Illinois and Louisiana. We find that with the current mitigation efforts five of those six states reduce their reproduction number to a value less than one, stopping the exponential growth of the pandemic. We also projected different scenarios after the mitigation is relaxed. Analysis for other states can be found at https://covid19projection.org/.